In June, the President of the ERO published a report entitled “Information on investment plans in new generation capacities in 2020–2034”. It indicated that more than half of the 14.2 GW of new capacity are wind and solar farms. New capacities with a low correction factor of availability prevail (KWD for PV = 2.27%, offshore = 20.34%, onshore = 13.93%), which means that the actual power increase, taking into account KWD, will be only 6.9 GW .

In addition, the number of planned decommissioning of production capacity in this period is approximately 18.8 GW. They mainly consist of hard coal (11.8 GW) and lignite (4.9 GW) units with a high correction factor of availability (KWD = 92.6%), which means an actual reduction in available capacity by 17.2 GW. According to the ERO estimates, 8.2 GW in coal sources (from 18.8 GW) will probably withdraw due to the inability to use the capacity mechanism after 2025 and the lack of economic efficiency.

According to the President of ERO, the new structure of sources in the system, i.e. the increase of uncontrollable sources while reducing the power of controllable and highly available sources, will lead to the introduction and development of new market solutions for securing the system’s operation (e.g. energy storage) or increasing the technical possibilities of importing electricity.

Read more