As follows from the “Report on the results of monitoring the security of electricity supply” for the period from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2020, the Ministry of Climate and Environment recognizes the possibility of significant and increasing shortages of the required excess capacity in the National Power System over time after 2025 The authors of the report predict that between 6,000 MW and approx. 11,000 MW of new capacity will have to be built by 2030.
According to the analysis, the first serious shortages may occur as a result of planned permanent shutdowns of thermal CDGU operation. If the pessimistic scenario of outages of generation sources materializes, it would mean the lack of the ability to effectively balance the PPS and an increase in electricity imports from neighboring systems. However, as stated in the report, reliance on electricity imports is not a reliable source of balance sheet coverage.
As emphasized by the authors of the report, due to the effects of power imbalance in the National Power System, one should strive to improve the balance sheet situation through regulatory instruments, along with support systems and financial instruments (including EU funds). In order to ensure the security of electricity supply in the period until 2035, the planned investments in new generation capacities must be accompanied by a coordinated development of the network infrastructure.
Report on the results of the monitoring of security of electricity supply