According to the report of the Instrat Foundation, in the years 2021-2030 the cost of energy generation will increase by as much as 61% if Poland actually implements the scenario of the Polish government’s Energy Policy until 2040 (PEP2040). According to the scenario of changes in the domestic energy sector developed by the authors of the report, the costs of electricity production may turn out to be even half lower than the government plans, if we start investing more in renewable energy sources.
The Instrat forecast assumes that Poland can obtain installed capacity from onshore wind farms of 44 GW, from offshore wind farms – 31 GW, and from roof and ground photovoltaic installations – about 79 GW. It follows that achieving over 70% share of RES in electricity production in 2030 is possible, while the goals of PEP2040 set by the government indicate only 32%. If the Instrat scenario were taken into account, Poland would reduce CO2 emissions by 65% in the electricity sector in 2030 compared to 2015.