An analysis of the data of the President of the ERO on investment plans for new generation capacities for 2020–2034, collected from 63 energy producers, shows that over the next thirteen years the production potential of available capacity in the national power system (PPS) may decline.
According to the latest study by the ERO, energy companies plan to commission a total of over 14.2 GW of new generation capacity by 2034. 34% is to come from offshore technology (4.8 GW), 31% from natural gas (4.4 GW) and 19% from photovoltaics (2.8 GW). At the same time, in the same period, producers plan to decommission units with a total capacity of 18.8 GW, based mainly on hard coal (12.8 MW) and lignite (5.3 MW). This means that, due to the variability and unpredictability of weather conditions, renewable energy technologies cannot be compared with conventional ones in terms of their impact on the stability of the system.
As shown by the data analyzed by the Energy Regulatory Office, the available capacity decreases despite the constant increase in installed capacity. This means the necessity to introduce new market solutions that will ensure the stability of the PPS operation.
The analysis of the Energy Regulatory Office indicates that in 2034 the generation potential of the surveyed entities will be lower by approx. 11% (4.6 GW) compared to 2020. It is important that electricity producers have planned to increase the share of uncontrollable sources while reducing controllable and highly available sources. Taking into account the correction factor of availability, the reduction of the available capacity in the power system can be as much as 31% (10.6 GW).